Поставки кремниевых чипов резко сократились
4/26/2024 2:22:53 PM
As shipments of computer chips, smartphones and DRAM modules return to
pre-COVID-19 normal volumes, the high-tech industry is suffering from an
increasing number of negative business results. Silicon wafer makers
are also suffering from new market conditions, although it's not just
bad news for manufacturing as a whole.
According to SEMI
Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG), an industry association that provides
information and statistics on the silicon industry and semiconductor
market, global silicon wafer shipments fell to 3.265 billion square
inches (-9.0% sequentially) in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the
fourth quarter of 2022. On a year-over-year basis, the silicon wafer
market declined 11.3% from 3.679 billion square inches in the first
quarter of 2022.
Anna-Riikka Vuorikari-Antikainen, President of
SEMI SMG, said the decline in silicon wafer shipments reflects the
weakness in semiconductor demand since the beginning of the year.
Vuorikari-Antikainen said that demand for memory chips and consumer
electronics devices declined the most, while automotive and industrial
applications remained relatively stable.
SEMI SMG emphasized
that silicon wafers are the basic building blocks of semiconductors,
which in turn are "the core building blocks of virtually all electronic
goods, including computers, telecommunications equipment and other
consumer electronics." These highly engineered "thin" discs range in
diameter from 1 inch to 12 inches and are the base material for most
semiconductor devices or chip manufacturing.
The market data
provided by SEMI SMG includes both polished wafers, such as original
test and epitaxial wafers, and non-polished wafers shipped to end users,
namely CPU, chip and DIMM manufacturers. SEMI SMG is committed to
"facilitating collective efforts" to address issues related to the
silicon industry, including the development of market information and
statistics on ongoing market trends.
The trade association did
not provide any projections on future (expected) quarterly performance,
and third-party analysts are already watching for signs of a potential
market rebound. According to Gartner, chip revenue should return to
growth in 2024.
Looking back at 2022, with the high price of
silicon, the price of silicon chips has been soaring. Until the end of
the year, the price of silicon wafers plunged again in a "stage",
falling by more than 20%. In addition to the ups and downs of silicon
wafer prices, the expansion of silicon wafer production capacity and
silicon wafer overcapacity have also become a major industry hotspot.
It is reported that in 2022, China plans or is under construction of up
to 32 silicon wafer projects, with a total scale of 543GW, involving an
investment amount of 419.786 billion yuan. And unlike the long
expansion cycle of the silicon material field, the expansion cycle of
the silicon chip link is relatively short. Taking Gaojing Solar as an
example, its 50GW monocrystalline silicon rod and 30GW monocrystalline
silicon wafer project in Yibin, Sichuan Province, the first phase of the
construction of 25GW monocrystalline silicon rod and 25GW
monocrystalline silicon wafer production line and supporting facilities,
the project officially started in September 2022, and officially put
into operation in December that year. It took just 85 days from
construction to production. Because of this, the capacity of many new
silicon players will expand rapidly in 2022, almost on par with the
industry's leading companies.
Under the tide of expansion, the
competition in the industry is bound to intensify, including the
competition in price. However, Longji and Central still dominate the
price of silicon wafers very strongly in 2022, which well transmits the
pressure of rising silicon materials. In 2022, Longi shares, the silicon
leader, adjusted the price of silicon chips 14 times. Taking 182
silicon wafers as an example, at the beginning of 2022, the price of
165μm thickness is 5.85 yuan/piece, since then the thickness of silicon
wafers not only dropped to 150 microns, the price is also rising all the
way, to July 26, the price reached the peak of the year, 182 silicon
wafers the highest annual increase of 28.89%. The highest increase of
166 silicon wafer was 25.84%, and the highest increase of 158.75 was
26.92%. On November 24, Longi silicon began to cut prices, and on
December 23, it was significantly reduced to 5.4 yuan/piece. Compared
with the price at the beginning of the year, Longi 182 silicon chips
decreased by 7.69% and 166 silicon chips decreased by 9.74%.
Another silicon chip giant, Central shares, adjusted their prices 10
times in 2022, with the highest price appearing on September 8, 2022.
The highest annual increase of 218.2mm silicon wafer was 33.91%, the
highest increase of 210 was 34.13%, and the highest increase of 182
silicon wafer was 36.56%. From October 31, Zhonghuan began to reduce the
price of silicon wafers. The same as Longji shares, Central shares also
significantly adjusted their prices on December 23, with 210 silicon
chips falling to 7.1 yuan/piece and 182 falling to 5.4 yuan/piece.
At the same time, the price of the entire silicon wafer market is
basically the same as the price trend of silicon wafers in Longji and
Central. According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Branch,
from the beginning of November 2022, silicon chip prices showed a slight
decline, and then all the way down.
So far, the status quo of
silicon wafer oversupply has not changed, the upstream raw material
prices are falling, so it is expected that silicon wafer prices will
continue to maintain a downward trend in the short term, but in general,
the inventory of various enterprises has not increased significantly,
so the price will not fall sharply in the short term.